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		<title>WSJ-‘Liberation Day,’ One Year Later</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-liberation-day-one-year-later/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-liberation-day-one-year-later/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:50:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Trump’s tariffs didn’t spur economic growth but did encourage trade between spurned U.S. partners. By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux April 1, 2026 4:24 pm ET A year ago Thursday, President Trump raised the average effective tariff rate to 22.5%, and proclaimed April 2 “Liberation Day,” which would “forever be remembered as the day American&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-liberation-day-one-year-later/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-1f4wtlo-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">Trump’s tariffs didn’t spur economic growth but did encourage trade between spurned U.S. partners.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-12sqtu2-AuthorPlaintext">By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1s55o7t-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2026-04-01T20:24:00.000Z">April 1, 2026 4:24 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">A year ago Thursday, President Trump raised the average effective tariff rate to 22.5%, and proclaimed April 2 “Liberation Day,” which would “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn.” Financial markets convulsed. Within a week, the president began suspending and modifying his tariffs. By the time the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, the average effective rate had fallen to 11.6%, still higher than at any point between World War II and Liberation Day. Convinced that his tariffs were “quickly building the greatest economy in the history of the world,” Mr. Trump responded by invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% across-the-board tariff, that he promises to raise to 15%. A year into this experiment, how is Mr. Trump’s tariff policy working out?</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">Although the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 approached the level of the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 19.8% for all imports, our trading partners haven’t retaliated against the U.S. so much as pivoted toward other trading partners, initiating the greatest peacetime trade diversion of the modern era. To compensate for lost U.S. markets, they have mutually lowered barriers and increased trade with each other. As economist David Hebert of the American Institute for Economic Research <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/everyone-else-is-trading-without-us-146e7e9e?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqcEjx4BgiUygkXcY7oWehAQJt6VCdM_Z0qJ3hTOg18oFErwn6p_Xnl-XqLTtG4=&amp;gaa_ts=69caa6d5&amp;gaa_sig=skLT-VKtOqc2veNi7QWW1qERY8ZXfK4OiQdEt7LUqq8iyXXTQsrvsXz3hfME5rXvLJmsRoCP3rtn5zYW0CiJUQ==&amp;mod=article_inline" target="_blank" data-type="link">observed</a> in these pages, “the world isn’t deglobalizing. It’s reglobalizing around partners who commit to rules rather than those who wield tariffs like a club.”</p>
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<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">While the economic damage to America and the world would have been far greater had a full-blown trade war erupted, our economy will nevertheless suffer from this diversion of trade from the U.S. Most obviously, U.S. households, denied access to the lowest-priced goods on global markets, will have less purchasing power.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">The tariffs will also make American goods less competitive globally and more expensive at home. Tariffs raise the prices of inputs used by U.S.-based producers, which is no small matter. Dartmouth economist Douglas Irwin finds that more than half of U.S. imports are inputs used in producing goods and services in America. Tariffs steer resources toward expensive domestic products that we would otherwise import at a cheaper price. Tariffs thus divert capital and labor away from uses that would have yielded higher returns to capital and higher wages for workers. This combination of higher consumer prices and higher producer costs will slow economic growth as long as the tariffs are in place. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that if pre-court-ruling tariff levels are reimposed, consumer prices will rise by an additional 1% annually and economic growth will fall by 0.25 percentage point.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">Investors share this negative assessment of the tariffs. While U.S. equities outperformed those of other developed countries in the decade prior, in 2025 the three major U.S. stock indexes underperformed indexes in most other developed countries. Last year the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 13%, the S&amp;P 500 by 16%, and Nasdaq by 20%. But Germany’s DAX was up by 23%, Japan’s Nikkei by 26%, Canada’s S&amp;P/TSX by 29%, and South Korea’s Kospi by 76%. Given financial markets’ forward-looking nature, these numbers testify that the global economy is finding ways to prosper despite Mr. Trump’s tariffs’ denial of access to the American market.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">Additional evidence of the destructiveness of Mr. Trump’s tariffs comes from comparing America’s economic performance in 2025 to its performance in 2024, when, according to the president, the economy was “dead.” While Liberation Day didn’t occur until April 2, imports surged in the first quarter in anticipation of the tariffs, so the impact of Mr. Trump’s second-term tariffs can’t be assessed without including the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">Despite the administration’s boast of extracting foreign pledges to invest in the U.S. in return for lowering crippling tariff rates, 2025’s 1.2% increase in inbound foreign direct investment was considerably less than the 2.7% increase in 2024 and the 7.6% increase in 2017, the first year of Mr. Trump’s first presidency, when taxes were cut, regulatory burden was reduced, and tariffs were unchanged. Domestic investment also grew more slowly in 2025. Real gross private domestic investment last year grew by only 2% after growing in 2024 by 3% and 4.4% in 2017. As the global trade diversion makes our trading partners less reliant on U.S. markets and reduces our trade leverage, many of the verbal promises to invest in America are unlikely to materialize. Promised foreign investments that do materialize, being the result of political pressure and not of market forces, will further divert American resources into less-productive uses.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">Real U.S. gross domestic product grew by only 2.1% in 2025, compared with 2.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2017. It is therefore unsurprising that job growth in 2025, at 0.5%, was slower than job growth of 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2017. Importantly, given Mr. Trump’s fixation on manufacturing, in 2025 the pace of losing manufacturing jobs accelerated to 1.2%, faster than the decline in 2024 of 0.7%. In 2017 manufacturing jobs actually increased by 0.7%.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph">If the economy was “dead” in 2024, there’s no evidence Mr. Trump’s tariffs have brought it back to life. The only major economic-policy difference between the first year of Mr. Trump’s first term and the first year of his second term was the imposition of the highest tariffs since the Great Depression. Most economists predicted that the economy’s performance would be negatively affected. Thus far data overwhelmingly indicate that is what has happened.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh e1sflz8f0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Boudreaux is a professor of economics at George Mason University and the Mercatus Center.</em></p>
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		<title>WSJ-ESG May Be Eating Away at Your Investments</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-esg-may-be-eating-away-at-your-investments/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-esg-may-be-eating-away-at-your-investments/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2026 14:53:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Trump and the SEC affirm fiduciary duty, benefiting even shareholders with nonfinancial objectives. By Phil Gramm and Jeb Hensarling March 16, 2026 5:26 pm ET President Trump recently signed an executive order that aims to end a 20-year experiment in backdoor socialism usurping private wealth to serve special interests. It affirms fiduciary responsibility and extends it&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-esg-may-be-eating-away-at-your-investments/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-1us1eyr-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">Trump and the SEC affirm fiduciary duty, benefiting even shareholders with nonfinancial objectives.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-12sqtu2-AuthorPlaintext">By Phil Gramm and Jeb Hensarling</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1s55o7t-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2026-03-16T21:26:00.000Z">March 16, 2026 5:26 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">President Trump recently signed an executive order that aims to end a 20-year experiment in backdoor socialism usurping private wealth to serve special interests. It affirms fiduciary responsibility and extends it to proxy advisers “that prioritize radical political agendas over investor returns.” Fiduciary responsibility requires investment managers and advisers to act in “the best interest of the investor,” and it applies even when the investor is seeking nonfinancial outcomes such as environmental, social, faith-based or humanitarian gains.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins’s recent announcement that the commission is reviewing Biden-era rules governing so-called environmental, social and governance funds affirms this point. Fiduciary duty requires investment managers and advisers to exercise loyalty and care to ensure that investment objectives, whether financial or nonfinancial, are fulfilled.</p>
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<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">Pursuing ESG objectives without the investor’s expressed consent has been part of a thinly veiled attempt by progressives to coerce investment managers and private corporations to advance their political goals and not the investors’ interest. This process began in 2006 when United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced the Principles for Responsible Investment initiative. Loud activists with anticarbon and pro-DEI agendas have colluded with asset managers to push through hundreds of corporate stockholder resolutions contrary to the financial interests of general investors.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">As investors have noticed that ESG constraints produce lower returns while delivering few environmental or social benefits, opposition to ESG has grown. While the Biden administration used the same government agencies charged with protecting fiduciary responsibility to promote ESG, investor support for ESG stockholder resolutions fell from 33% in 2021 to 13% in 2025. The number of ESG proposals voted on in the last proxy year dropped 33% from the previous year. Support for ESG resolutions by asset managers, voting the shares of their investors, has dropped from 46% in 2021 to 18% in 2025.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">Investment firms are backing away from imposing ESG constraints on general investments and are tailoring offerings to target investors who actually want to promote nonfinancial objectives. U.S. investors have poured $6.6 trillion into achieving partially nonpecuniary results, according to the US Sustainable Investment Forum. And 48% of U.S. investors remain “very interested” in sustainable investing, with support even higher among younger investors, according to a 2025 survey conducted by <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/MS" target="_blank" data-type="company">Morgan Stanley</a>. If idealism outlives youth, ESG investing will grow significantly.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">ESG investment funds have often fostered the illusion that investors are supporting more “sustainable” environmental outcomes while earning similar risk-adjusted returns. Rarely is that the case over extended periods. ESG investment funds routinely rely on unproven and inconsistent analytics. Weighting investments in companies based on carbon or DEI metrics means, logically, that more important factors of financial performance are underweighted. The predictable financial underperformance of ESG funds is made worse by higher management fees.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">In most ESG investing, no systematic effort is made to verify the claimed nonpecuniary impact of the investment, and government regulators have, as far as we can tell, assumed impact investors have opted out of fiduciary protections. Conflicts of interest among advisers are rampant. Proxy adviser Institutional Shareholder Services, for example, advises companies on shareholder ESG proposals and then turns around and sells the same companies ESG ratings. Mr. Trump’s executive order correctly raises “significant concerns about conflicts of interest and the quality of their recommendations.” In a survey article in the Harvard Business Review, Sanjai Bhagat finds that ESG investments are “not making much difference to companies’ actual ESG performance” and that they “perform poorly in financial terms.”</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">Investors, investment advisers and government agencies charged with enforcing fiduciary responsibility need reliable independent data to ascertain whether investments achieve their noneconomic goals and promised rates of return. The University of Utah has spearheaded an effort to provide investors with financial and nonfinancial measures to determine whether their investments are delivering on their goals. These analytics measure the authenticity of investments, whether they achieve investors’ nonfinancial objectives, and whether they yield promised rates of return. A high score would provide evidence that an ESG-minded firm is fulfilling its fiduciary responsibility and possibly even meeting the requirements of the 2019 SEC Regulation Best Interest rule.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph">The Trump administration’s executive order on fiduciary duties is one of its most important pro-market actions. It should end ESG piracy by extending the standards of fiduciary duty to investors who want their money to achieve nonpecuniary as well as pecuniary goals. Greater transparency and clarity are urgently needed to disinfect the greenwashing fraud of many ESG initiatives. Instead of helping investors to do good while doing well, ESG investing too often delivers on neither promise. Government enforcement of our fiduciary laws can bring an end to such abuse.</p>
<p class="css-i0p3hh efuxpz20" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Hensarling, a former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is an economics fellow at the Cato Institute. Mike Solon contributed to this article.</em></p>
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		<title>The Washington Post-The best evidence against Trump’s tariffs? His own first term.</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/the-washington-post-the-best-evidence-against-trumps-tariffs-his-own-first-term/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/the-washington-post-the-best-evidence-against-trumps-tariffs-his-own-first-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2026 15:36:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Without tariffs, the first year of the president’s first term saw a healthier economy than 2025. February 9, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. EST By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux Phil Gramm, a former U.S. Senator from Texas and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Donald J.&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/the-washington-post-the-best-evidence-against-trumps-tariffs-his-own-first-term/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="wpds-c-ckOSsQ wpds-c-ckOSsQ-iPJLV-css" data-qa="subheadline" data-testid="subheadline">Without tariffs, the first year of the president’s first term saw a healthier economy than 2025.</p>
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<div class="wpds-c-eUMOSL"><span class="wpds-c-bASIGw wpds-c-bASIGw-inNKvU-css overrideStyles" data-testid="published-date">February 9, 2026 at 7:00 a.m. EST</span></div>
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<div class="wpds-c-byuVAJ wpds-c-byuVAJ-iPJLV-css" data-testid="author-name-with-optional-link"><span class="PJLV" data-testid="byline-attribution">By </span><span class="wpds-c-PJLV wpds-c-PJLV-cIdiJW-isLink-false overrideStyles js-itid-click">Phil Gramm</span> and Donald J. Boudreaux</div>
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<p class="wpds-c-heFNVF wpds-c-heFNVF-iPJLV-css overrideStyles font-copy" dir="null" data-apitype="text" data-contentid="W26RGO5PDZABXFSJXYBSGLBFLE" data-el="text"><i>Phil Gramm, a former U.S. Senator from Texas and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Donald J. Boudreaux is an economics professor at George Mason University.</i></p>
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<div dir="null">President Donald Trump <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-turns-focus-economy-speech-detroit/story?id=129168676%23:~:text=Interest%20Successfully%20Added-,Trump%20boasts%20of%20%27economic%20boom%27%20as%20voters%20remain%20concerned%20about,it%20holding%20steady%20at%202.7%25.&amp;text=President%20Donald%20Trump%20on%20Tuesday,Trump%27s%20handling%20of%20the%20issue." target="_blank">regularly claims</a> to have achieved <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/01/14/trump-economy-jobs-inflation/" target="_blank">unprecedented prosperity</a> in his second term, which <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-j-trump-my-tariffs-have-brought-america-back-2248391b" target="_blank">he attributes</a> to his implementation of the highest tariffs since the Great Depression. But no matter what data points the president points to, his tariff policies appear to be holding back the very prosperity he claims to have achieved.</div>
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<div dir="null">How can one know this? Test the president’s claim with a comparison that’s as close as you get in the real world to a controlled experiment: Evaluate economic growth in the first year of his first term — which did not see the implementation of tariffs — against the same data in the first year of his second term, which did. This comparison works because all other economic policies in the two terms are virtually identical.</div>
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<div dir="null">In both 2017 and 2025, Trump dramatically improved the economy’s growth potential by lifting crippling regulatory burdens imposed by his predecessors and by enacting pro-growth tax cuts. The only significant economic policy difference is the imposition of the largest tariffs since the 1930s. So, by comparing 2025 to 2017, we can largely isolate the impact of the tariffs. Using such a comparison, Trump’s boast about all the good that his tariffs are supposedly bestowing on America falls apart.</div>
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<div dir="null">In 2025, <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS" target="_blank">nonfarm employment</a><i> </i>grew by 0.9 percent, which was notably less than the 1.6 percent increase in 2017. The growth of manufacturing jobs, which the administration targets as a primary objective, saw an even worse decline. In 2017, the nation saw an increase in <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP" target="_blank">manufacturing employment</a> of 0.7 percent, but in 2025 the number of manufacturing jobs actually <i>fell</i> by 0.7 percent.</div>
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<div dir="null">Meanwhile, <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://motioresearch.com/chart/median-household-income-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank">inflation-adjusted median household income</a> grew by 1.4 percent last year, less than the 1.9 percent increase in 2017. <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q" target="_blank">Real weekly earnings</a> for full-time wage and salary workers rose by 0.53 percent, slower than the 0.86 percent in 2017. Only in the <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AHETPI" target="_blank">narrower measure</a> of average real hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers was wage growth faster in 2025 than 2017, 0.85 percent as compared with 0.37 percent.</div>
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<div dir="null"><a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO" target="_blank">Industrial production</a> also performed better in Trump’s first term than in his second. In 2017 it rose 2.5 percent, but in 2025, it rose by only 2 percent.</div>
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<div dir="null">All told, gross domestic product in the first three quarters of 2017 grew by 2.5 percent, the same as the growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 (the latest available data).</div>
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<div dir="null">The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished last year 15 percent higher than its close on election day 2024, but its close at the end of 2017 was a whopping 35 percent above its close on Election Day 2016. The same can be said for the S&amp;P 500 (15 percent compared with 25 percent) and the NASDAQ (26 percent compared with 33 percent).</div>
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<div dir="null"><a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GPDIC1" target="_blank">Real gross private domestic investment</a> tells a similar story. Over the first three quarters of 2025 (the latest data available), domestic investment increased by 1.6 percent. But over the first three quarters of 2017, it rose by 3.0 percent. It’s worth noting that domestic investment in 2025 was likely due in part to the massive federal subsidies carried over from the Biden-era green-energy and chips boondoggles.</div>
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<div dir="null">The poor economic performance at all levels of the economy over the past year is a direct result of the tariffs. Most American imports are raw materials used in U.S. production. Obstructing American producers’ access to these supplies caused production costs to increase – uncertainty generated by the tariffs’ volatility only compounds this effect. Tariffs raise consumer costs and lower living standards. Trump <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_41424c4f-4b3d-4192-9d7d-b23286e2c86b.html" target="_blank">misses these facts</a> because he and his <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tariffs-are-a-discipline-not-a-press-release-4022e09e" target="_blank">trade advisers</a> mistakenly think that most of the tariffs’ costs fall on foreigners. Yet according to <a href="https://archive.is/o/6JTek/https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/americas-own-goal-americans-pay-almost-entirely-for-trumps-tariffs/" target="_blank">recent research from the Kiel Institute</a>, “importers and consumers in the US bear 96 percent of the tariff burden.”</div>
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<div dir="null">Comparing the 2025 economy to that of 2017 strongly suggests that if Trump’s policies had been more like his first term, our economy would be significantly stronger today. Lifting regulatory burdens, cutting taxes and controlling spending is what would make America great again. The tariffs — the highest since the Depression — only weigh us down.</div>
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		<title>WSJ-Government Won’t Help the AI Job Transition</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-government-wont-help-the-ai-job-transition/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-government-wont-help-the-ai-job-transition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 21:18:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Phil Gramm and Michael Solon Feb. 5, 2026 1:07 pm ET A consensus has formed that while artificial intelligence may create new and better jobs, its threat to current job holders requires massive new government training programs, unemployment assistance, income supplement programs and even a guaranteed minimum income. Missing from this rush to expand the&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-government-wont-help-the-ai-job-transition/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">By Phil Gramm and Michael Solon</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2026-02-05T18:07:00.000Z">Feb. 5, 2026 1:07 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">A consensus has formed that while artificial intelligence may create new and better jobs, its threat to current job holders requires massive new government training programs, unemployment assistance, income supplement programs and even a guaranteed minimum income. Missing from this rush to expand the government’s social safety net is any recognition that previous efforts to cushion the transition from jobs of the past to jobs of the future have done little to benefit those making the transition—and have raised the cost for society as a whole.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Societal gains from technological change come from what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called “the wave of creative destruction.” The lost jobs and investments rendered unprofitable by new technology free up labor and capital that can be redeployed to produce new and higher-valued goods and services. The more seamlessly the transition from the old to the new, the greater the gain from the new technology. “American exceptionalism,” our ability to generate and sustain higher living standards, has come in part from developing new technology and benefiting from being the first to implement it, and in part from our ability to move labor and capital dislocated by the wave of creative destruction efficiently into higher and better uses.</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">On average, every month since 2000 some 5.1 million American workers were separated from their jobs or were laid off and more than 5.2 million new jobs were created. In 2025, three times as many Americans changed jobs as did workers in the European Union. So inefficient is the Chinese economy in dealing with creative destruction that most industrial subsidies in China are used to sustain noncompetitive businesses. In short, the U.S. channels the wave of creative destruction through the economic system more efficiently than any other country in the world, and we are constantly enriched by it.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Government programs have provided a cushion to displaced workers, but they have also impeded the transitions. The 1962 Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which provided training, job-search and income support to workers harmed by foreign trade, has provided benefits to more than five million people. Numerous public and private studies have highlighted TAA’s failure by comparing the transition of TAA beneficiaries with workers who lost their jobs during the same period but didn’t receive TAA. Studies by the Government Accountability Office, the Labor Department and the U.S. International Trade Commission agree that TAA is insufficient in supporting dislocated workers to re-enter the labor market. It didn’t improve earnings. Benefits were used mostly as income support, and nonparticipants were re-employed faster than those who participated in TAA.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Another example is federal unemployment insurance, which was adopted in the 1935 Social Security Act and significantly expanded over the ensuing decades. A classic 1988 study by the economists Lawrence Katz and Bruce Meyer found that for every week of extra benefits, the covered worker was unemployed for as much as an extra day. The Congressional Budget Office found that “many workers find jobs in the weeks immediately before and after their benefits run out.” While unemployment benefits clearly are valued by people who lose their jobs, public and private studies generally conclude that on average the longer unemployment insurance is provided, the longer the worker will remain unemployed.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">With growing calls for permanent new subsidies and a guaranteed minimum income for AI-displaced workers, we should heed the lessons of the 60-year-old War on Poverty, which President Lyndon B. Johnson declared as “not a struggle simply to support people” but “to allow them to develop and use their capacities.” Yet as the annual federal welfare spending surged to more than $70,000 per poverty family, labor-force participation among able-bodied persons in the lowest income quintile collapsed to 36%, from 68% in 1967.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">A feel-good expansion of our existing programs to address AI transitions could idle tens of millions of workers, squander much of the economic benefit we hope to derive from AI, and foster a dangerous “bread and circuses” political system in which those who have chosen to remain outside the labor force demand an increasing share of the benefits created by those who have chosen to work.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Fortunately, a great blessing of AI technology is that it holds out the promise of facilitating the transition of workers from the jobs of the past to the jobs of the future. AI has been used in individual job searches and has been employed by the Harvard Business School to facilitate job placement for its graduates, but the technology hasn’t yet been applied by government to assist either the unemployed or current welfare recipients.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">A national AI-employment system could provide individual assistance to the unemployed: assessing their aptitudes and interest and matching them with emerging jobs. It could provide individual training and track job openings in real time. If combined with a mandatory work requirement, AI could provide the most effective worker transition in history. It could revolutionize welfare by testing aptitude, providing individual training, and matching able-bodied welfare recipients with available jobs. An AI-assisted transition can assure that fewer people are left behind and that the societal benefits are expanded and broadly shared.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Solon is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.</em></p>
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		<title>WSJ-Raising the FDIC Limit Risks Repeating the S&amp;L Crisis</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-raising-the-fdic-limit-risks-repeating-the-sl-crisis/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-raising-the-fdic-limit-risks-repeating-the-sl-crisis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2026 17:54:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[A bipartisan proposal to write checks the government can’t cash. By Jeb Hensarling and Michael Solon Jan. 7, 2026 6:12 pm ET Government insurance programs are often tied to budget-busting bailouts and economic crises. But political pressures are again driving their expansion—and when these programs fail, taxpayers are left with the bill. Washington’s latest bad idea&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-raising-the-fdic-limit-risks-repeating-the-sl-crisis/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-3gg6jm-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">A bipartisan proposal to write checks the government can’t cash.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">By Jeb Hensarling and Michael Solon</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2026-01-07T23:12:00.000Z">Jan. 7, 2026 6:12 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Government insurance programs are often tied to budget-busting bailouts and economic crises. But political pressures are again driving their expansion—and when these programs fail, taxpayers are left with the bill.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Washington’s latest bad idea is the Main Street Depositor Protection Act, offered by Sens. Bill Hagerty (R., Tenn.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D., Md.) and endorsed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The bill would increase the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. limit on all non-interest-bearing accounts from $250,000 to $10 million. But the change would apply only to midsize and community banks—not to global, systemically important banks. Smaller banks wouldn’t have to pay the estimated $42 billion for the increased insurance; the premium increases are largely shifted to bigger banks. Banks under $10 billion in assets don’t have to pay any additional premiums.</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">To hide the price shock from big banks inevitably passing the costs on to their customers, the bill would phase in higher deposit-insurance fees and increased required reserves over the course of a decade. Consequently, the FDIC’s ratio of guaranteed deposits to reserves—a critical indicator of the fund’s ability to protect taxpayers—would be dangerously distorted for 10 years.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">We’ve seen this before. A similar lack of reserves prevented the shutdown of troubled savings-and-loan associations in the 1980s. Regulators lacked the resources in their insurance fund to close bankrupt S&amp;Ls, forcing an era of “forbearance” when thrifts stayed open despite insolvency. It dramatically drove up the resolution cost of the S&amp;L crisis from an estimated $25 billion had the problem been addressed in 1983 to an actual cost of $160 billion by the 1990s.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The newly proposed FDIC deposit hike resembles Congress’s 1980 increase of the insured deposit limit from $40,000 to $100,000. In its review of the S&amp;L crisis, the FDIC said the increase “added substantially to the potential costs of resolving failed financial institutions” and worsened the moral hazard problem. The increase Congress is now considering would be more than 160 times the size of the 1980 hike.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The 2008 financial crisis represents another infamous example of expanding liabilities without necessary capital. After Congress authorized the Department of Housing and Urban Development in 1992 to set affordable-housing goals, Fannie Mae and <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FMCC" target="_blank" data-type="company">Freddie Mac</a> repeatedly lowered credit standards. The mortgage assets held or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie then grew from roughly $1.1 trillion in 1992 to $5.2 trillion by 2008. Despite skyrocketing portfolio risk, they never raised guarantee fees. When widespread subprime mortgage defaults began in 2007, Fannie and Freddie only held roughly 1.6% in capital and sustained combined losses of over $100 billion in 2008 alone. They have remained functionally insolvent and under government conservatorship ever since.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Proponents of raising deposit insurance from $250,000 maintain that “too big to fail” banks have a competitive advantage over smaller financial institutions, where government bailouts are unlikely. But smaller banks have their own advantages. Under the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements for the largest banks are often 10% or more, compared with roughly 7% for smaller banks. Larger banks also face stress tests and other burdensome regulations that smaller banks don’t.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">With this legislation, regional and community banks will have deposit guarantees comparable to large banks but without similar capital and regulatory burdens. Does anyone believe Democrats won’t eventually push similarly crushing regulations onto these smaller institutions? After the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) supported higher deposit-guarantee limits but only in return for more regulation.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The government is full of programs guaranteeing assets without imposing fees or premiums commensurate with risk. Flood insurance rebuilds the same house <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-house-22-floods-repeated-claims-drain-federal-insurance-program-1505467830?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqeviCwLY17-Rob5DjP-qctBMTry7GKuAqivSJLKiYa195nayaxAIFVrg0Srb4g=&amp;gaa_ts=695ddb0c&amp;gaa_sig=uWXm4XLmMvwrACxRuQI68hCOczlZS-ZmEsoKjcM5mcRk5kESLjImoQxbWHTLtiHOXEvbxH2aIKg0RI8SI2sA6Q==&amp;mod=article_inline" target="_blank" data-type="link">five times</a>, and taxpayers are stuck with 60% of the premiums for federal crop insurance. When flooding happens or the crop fails, insufficient funds exist to pay claims. Government then passes emergency funding legislation to make up the shortfall. Federal regulatory power inevitably expands.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The same principles apply to federal deposit insurance. Increasing the level of insured deposits without imposing the actuarially sound insurance cost on the banks and businesses that benefit encourages reckless behavior. Federal and state laws would never permit any private insurer to operate as federal insurance programs regularly do.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Public insurance has become one of the most sustained sources of systemic risk in our economy. Congress shouldn’t make it worse.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Hensarling is an economics fellow at the Cato Institute. He served as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, 2013-19. Mr. Solon is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute</em></p>
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		<title>WSJ-The Biggest Fraud in Welfare</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-biggest-fraud-in-welfare/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-biggest-fraud-in-welfare/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2025 16:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The government gives tens of thousands of dollars in benefits to the poor, which it doesn’t count as income. By Phil Gramm and John Early Dec. 17, 2025 3:37 pm ET Something is profoundly wrong with the U.S. welfare system—a problem that runs far deeper and is more dangerous than the shocking fraud in Minnesota that&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-biggest-fraud-in-welfare/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-3gg6jm-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">The government gives tens of thousands of dollars in benefits to the poor, which it doesn’t count as income.</h2>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2025-12-17T20:37:00.000Z">Dec. 17, 2025 3:37 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text">Something is profoundly wrong with the U.S. welfare system—a problem that runs far deeper and is more dangerous than the shocking fraud in Minnesota that has been making headlines.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Across the past half-century, America has seen what in any other country would be considered a golden age, in which lower-income households have made incredible progress. Despite the end of our postwar economic dominance around 1975, the country’s real per-capita gross domestic product grew by 142% from 1974 to 2024. More than two-thirds of U.S. households have inflation-adjusted incomes today that would have put them in the top one-fifth of households in 1967. Sixty-two percent of the children who grew up in the poorest fifth of all households in the ’70s and ’80s worked their way up to a higher income bracket as adults, some all the way to the top quintile.</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Yet even as our economy has experienced broad-based growth, real federal welfare spending has soared by 765%, more than twice as fast as total federal spending, and now costs $1.4 trillion annually. Were that money simply doled out evenly to the 19.8 million families the government defines as poor, each household would receive more than $70,000 a year.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The source of this dramatic mismatch is a fraud built into how various programs determine welfare eligibility: The government doesn’t count any refundable tax credits or benefits that aren’t paid in cash as income to the recipients.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Some claim this is appropriate because the beneficiaries aren’t free to spend noncash benefits on whatever they like. But that is a specious argument, because money is fungible. Receiving Medicaid, for example, frees up cash that would otherwise be spent on healthcare, allowing the recipients to spend the newly freed cash on other things. Noncash benefits aren’t in the end that different from income—except that salaries are taxed while government benefits aren’t. And individual welfare programs often don’t even count benefits paid in cash as income for the purpose of gauging eligibility.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The government’s failure to count its largess as recipients’ income allows welfare households to blow past the income level above which a working family no longer qualifies for government help. Take a single parent with two school-age children who earns $11,000 annually from part-time work. The government considers this household in poverty because its income is below $25,273. But this family would qualify for benefits worth $53,128. It would receive Treasury checks of $3,400 in refundable child tax credits and $4,400 in refundable earned-income tax credits. The family would also receive Food Stamp debit cards worth $9,216 a year, $9,476 in housing subsidies, $877 of government payments for utility bills, $16,033 to fund Medicaid, $3,102 in free meals at school and $6,624 in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. All this puts the family’s income at $64,128, or 254% of the poverty level.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">A hardworking family earning anything like $64,128 in salary wouldn’t be eligible for any of these welfare benefits in four-fifths of the states. Meanwhile, the welfare family would be eligible for another 90 small federal benefits and sundry state and local welfare programs.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">According to the Congressional Budget Office and other independent researchers, when all means-tested payments are counted as income, most welfare recipients have incomes that put them in the middle class, and the proportion of poor people in the U.S. falls from more than 10% to less than 1%.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">This unjust system also penalizes work. Unsurprisingly, the percentage of work-age persons in the bottom 20% of income who in fact work has in the last 50 years fallen from 68% to 36%.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The budgetary effects of these inaccurate income calculations are enormous. Look at what government programs cost minus any dedicated revenue they collect and interest on the debt, which government is obligated to pay. Payroll taxes fund 87% of Social Security spending, requiring an additional $188 billion, or 4% of unobligated spending. Medicare is 45% funded by payroll taxes and uses $478 billion of unobligated spending, or 11%. Defense spending of $851 billion is 20% of unobligated spending. Means-tested welfare programs absorb $1.4 trillion, 34% of unobligated spending, and the rest of the federal government spends $1.3 trillion, or 30% of unobligated spending.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">If the government simply gave every poor family in America enough money to raise its income above the official poverty level, it would cost only $240 billion. That would reduce the annual deficit by two-thirds.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In light of the mounting evidence of rampant benefits fraud, Congress should institute a comprehensive audit of all means-tested programs. But it should start with removing the largest fraud in welfare—the government’s gross overstatement of poverty. President Trump should issue an executive order requiring the Census Bureau to count all welfare benefits received from the government as income to the recipients. Then Congress should codify the executive order and require that all means-tested programs use the corrected Census income definition to determine eligibility for welfare payments.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">At a minimum, the resulting debate would inform the public about the bias in how the government measures income and how that bias has promoted welfare benefits that give recipients a standard of living that most middle-income families struggle to enjoy. The debate would force spending advocates to defend a wasteful and unjust system. Welfare reform would not only help the nation begin to deal with its budget problems, but could be a powerful issue in American politics headed into the 2026 elections for those willing to champion it.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm is a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Early served twice as assistant commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is an adjunct scholar to the Cato Institute. Mike Solon contributed to this article.</em></p>
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		<title>WSJ-World Trade Grows Without the U.S.</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-world-trade-grows-without-the-u-s/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-world-trade-grows-without-the-u-s/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:12:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Other nations are busy expanding commercial ties, as the U.S. economy is increasingly isolated. By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux Dec. 8, 2025 3:49 pm ET The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs helped bring about a global depression. Nothing of the sort has happened in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, even though their rates&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-world-trade-grows-without-the-u-s/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-3gg6jm-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">Other nations are busy expanding commercial ties, as the U.S. economy is increasingly isolated.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">By Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2025-12-08T20:49:00.000Z">Dec. 8, 2025 3:49 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs helped bring about a global depression. Nothing of the sort has happened in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, even though their rates approach those of Smoot-Hawley. But that’s no reason for complacency. The world has changed since 1930 in ways that ensure the damage of Mr. Trump’s trade war will be borne primarily by the U.S. and its workers.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Here’s the key difference: After President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, 25 countries imposed retaliatory tariffs, triggering a worldwide trade war—economic fratricide. There was “a headlong stampede to protectionism and restriction in imports,” in the words of economic historian Charles Kindleberger. According to the League of Nations, the real value of world trade plummeted by more than 65% between 1929 and 1933. Almost no direct retaliation occurred after Mr. Trump announced his tariffs in April.</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The 1930 reaction to Smoot-Hawley was driven by nationalism mixed with the fear that under the gold standard, countries hit by U.S. tariffs would have to settle their trade deficits in gold, depleting their gold reserves and money supply, further depressing their wages and prices.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Today the gold standard is gone, and the trade balance affects exchange rates rather than the money supply. Governments no longer have to worry about trade deficits causing deflation. Our trading partners remember the pain of the Depression-era trade war and how postwar trade expansion rebuilt Europe and Asia, enabling one of the longest periods of peace among major powers since the fall of Rome. They also have relatively more to lose than the U.S. does from a trade war: Our 10 largest trading partners on average export and import 55.5% more of their gross domestic product than the U.S. does.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney no doubt expressed the feelings of many of our trading partners when he said the U.S. was “no longer a reliable partner” and that Ottawa must “pivot our trade relations elsewhere.” Canada has responded to U.S. tariffs by launching a trade expansion effort, including a meeting between Mr. Carney and Xi Jinping that Mr. Carney called a “turning point” in Canada-China relations and trade.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Dramatic improvements in transportation and communications have made it much easier for exporters and importers to find alternative markets for their goods and services and to locate new suppliers for inputs needed in their production processes. The rise of small-volume carriers such as <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FDX" target="_blank" data-type="company">FedEx</a>, UPS and DHL along with the significant fall in freight rates have made trade diversion and diversification easier and more profitable. As important, the cost of instant international communication and search has fallen to near zero.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The current trade diversion began when Mr. Trump’s first-term tariffs led China to shift its exports to other countries. Under Mr. Trump’s second-term tariffs, Chinese exports to the U.S. fell by 69% from February through September, but Chinese exports to other regions rose. Over these same months, Chinese exports to Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states were up by 61%, to Japan and Korea by 41%, to Africa by 35%, to the European Union by 28%, and to India and Latin America each by more than 10%. Oxford Economics analysts estimate China will close out 2025 having exported 8.3% more than last year, with its exports then holding steady in 2026. U.S. exports, by contrast, are projected to fall next year by 3.4%.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In August, Canadian exports to the U.S. were about 10% below the 2024 average, but our northern neighbor is weaving commercial ties with other nations, including China, India, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Canada has reached a new trade expansion agreement with the EU and joined the EU in a defense production partnership.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Meanwhile in Asia, India’s recent easing of tensions with Beijing is fueling exports to China. According to India’s Economic Times, these exports are “helping New Delhi partly soften the blow of steep US tariffs.” India has also negotiated a free-trade agreement with the U.K. and hopes to complete a similar agreement with the EU by year’s end.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Bloomberg reports that “the new contours of global commerce are starting to emerge as governments redraw trade alliances and companies seek other markets to avoid the highest US tariffs since the 1930s.”</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">As trade is diverted around the U.S., other countries will continue to specialize in producing goods and services for which they have a comparative advantage. This specialization and the trade that sustains it will enhance efficiency and fuel economic growth in those trading nations. America’s economy will become increasingly isolated, to our detriment. Before tariffs, well over half of U.S. imports were inputs used by American producers. Keeping tariffs high will deny these producers access to many of the world’s lowest-cost inputs. Obliged by Mr. Trump’s protectionism to produce goods we could buy cheaper abroad and shielded from the competition that drives peak performance, U.S. producers will become less efficient and less competitive on the world market.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">American firms that relied on export markets to build economies of scale will shrink their operations to match their shrinking customer bases. Growth in worker productivity and real wages will fall, and the prices that American families pay for goods and services will rise. U.S. economic growth will slow.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Higher input costs produced by tariffs—especially the 50% tariff on steel, aluminum and copper—will also increase defense procurement costs. American-made weapons and other defense products will become pricier and less competitive on the world market. This is ironic in light of attempts to justify the tariffs with appeals to national security.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Expanding world trade built the modern world, liberated Eastern Europe, won the Cold War, and expanded America’s prosperity and influence. Building a tariff wall around America won’t stop trade; it will simply divert it. If tariffs remain high, America’s wealth and power will wane while that of other countries will grow.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Boudreaux is a professor of economics at George Mason University. Mike Solon contributed to this article.</em></p>
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		<title>WSJ-The AI Revolution Will Bring Prosperity</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-ai-revolution-will-bring-prosperity/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-ai-revolution-will-bring-prosperity/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2025 00:58:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The growth of industry disrupted old economic patterns but produced undreamed-of wealth. By Phil Gramm and Michael Solon Nov. 2, 2025 4:05 pm ET Most speculation about artificial intelligence has focused on its potential to kill jobs and on the policies that government might implement to control AI and cushion workers against temporary or permanent unemployment.&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-the-ai-revolution-will-bring-prosperity/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-3gg6jm-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">The growth of industry disrupted old economic patterns but produced undreamed-of wealth.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">By Phil Gramm and Michael Solon</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2025-11-02T21:05:00.000Z">Nov. 2, 2025 4:05 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Most speculation about artificial intelligence has focused on its potential to kill jobs and on the policies that government might implement to control AI and cushion workers against temporary or permanent unemployment. Amid all the pessimism and calls for government protection, it’s important to remember that our only window into the future is the past. From the colossal changes wrought by the Industrial Revolution to the Digital Revolution of the last quarter-century, improvements in technology have created an array of jobs that far exceeded—in quantity and quality—the ones eliminated, elevating standards of living. History offers cautionary tales of how special interests and public fear can spawn government policies that delay progress and raise the cost of the transition.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">For a medieval economy that had scarcely grown in 1,500 years, the Industrial Revolution in the U.K. unleashed a greater concentration of material blessings than ordinary people had ever experienced. From 1840 to 1900 real wages doubled, and the average lifespan increased by 22%, from roughly 41 years to 50. The population doubled, and employment rose by 80%.</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In America growth during the Industrial Revolution was of biblical proportions. From 1870 to 1900 real gross domestic product tripled, the population and labor force roughly doubled, and output in manufacturing grew sixfold. Real per capita income rose by 110% between 1865 and 1910, while real wages of manufacturing workers increased an estimated 173%. Life expectancy rose by a quarter as inflation-adjusted costs of food, clothing and shelter dropped by roughly 50%.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">During the Digital Revolution of the last quarter-century, U.S. real GDP rose by 66%. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the extraordinary capacity of the American economy to absorb new technology. Since 2000 on average five million Americans have either been laid off or quit their job every month, but the economy has created 5.1 million better-paying jobs a month. This creative destruction isn’t new. In 1810, 81% of Americans worked in agriculture; today only 1.2% do. In 1953, 32% of Americans worked in factories. As real industrial production quadrupled, the share of the labor force in manufacturing declined to 7.8% in 2025.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">No one perceived the creative destruction of the Industrial Revolution more clearly than Karl Marx. He saw the Industrial Revolution unleashing “more massive and colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together” in “scarce one hundred years.” But Marx also saw the destruction of the old “instruments of production” tearing asunder “the motley feudal ties that bound man to his natural superior” and leaving “no bond between man and man other than naked self-interest and callous cash payments.” Unfortunately, Marx saw these changes not as the dawning of economic freedom and the ascent of mankind, but as the beginning of a new age of exploitation, a view that once impoverished and enslaved half the world and still exerts influence across the planet.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">While Marx saw both the creative and destructive effects of the Industrial Revolution, the public response focused almost exclusively on the destructive. The British historian Arnold Toynbee saw the Industrial Revolution as “a period as disastrous and terrible as any through which a nation ever passed.” A room at the National Portrait Gallery in Washington has paintings of the titans of American industry as well as economic journalist Henry George. The label with George’s portrait quotes his judgment of the American Industrial Revolution: “The rich grew richer, the poor grow helpless, the middle class is swept away.”</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In Britain, displaced textile artisans engaged in industrial terrorism by destroying machinery such as looms in the Luddite Uprisings. The government sent in troops, and Parliament imposed the death penalty to stop the destruction. In America, mechanization, economies of scale and mass marketing gutted local competitors by providing lower prices and higher-quality products. States and then the federal government sought to constrain large, efficient producers with Progressive-era regulations that for 90 years protected producers at the consumer’s expense.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In the 19th century the U.K. and U.S. governments were small and largely noninterventionist. Today both governments are large and filled with political interests eager to expand government’s role in the economy. Sen. Bernie Sanders has embraced the Luddites’ cause, calling for taxes on robots. President Biden issued an executive order imposing government oversight of the use of AI and requiring AI to promote unionism, improve the environment and advance “equity” and civil rights. The AFL-CIO president has said “working people are fighting back against artificial intelligence and other technologies used to eliminate workers or undermine and exploit us.” And this is only the beginning.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Almost every discussion of AI calls for extensive economic assistance for those who are displaced, and a growing chorus calls for a guaranteed income. These proposals show no awareness that while trade adjustment assistance, extended unemployment and our welfare system were no doubt well-intended, they have impeded workers’ transition to new jobs. Impediments are already being raised to AI. Mr. Biden launched a wave of antitrust actions against big tech that the Trump administration largely has continued.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">American exceptionalism—in which Americans are more productive and have higher living standards—depends in part on our extraordinary ability to adjust to change. Europe makes it hard to lay people off, which constrains the ability to create jobs. In China, most industrial subsidies go to noncompetitive industries, not to the potential winners of the future.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Despite all the costs entailed in the transition, industrial technology and the market system accomplished what no benevolent king’s redistribution, no loving bishop’s charity, no mercantilist’s protectionism and no powerful guild ever did. It delivered a massive increase in productive capacity that continues to enrich our world. If we base our policies to cushion the AI transition on proven results rather than good intentions and let the market system develop and absorb AI technology, we can achieve a second economic miracle, which will enrich America and the world.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Gramm, a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Solon is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.</em></p>
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		<title>New York Post-Gerrymandering won’t work — it may tweak Congress but 2030 census dooms blue states’ sway</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/new-york-post-gerrymandering-wont-work-it-may-tweak-congress-but-2030-census-dooms-blue-states-sway/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2025 17:35:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[By Michael Solon Published Oct. 29, 2025, 11:20 a.m. ET Redistricting fervor is gripping our states’ capitals, as red states and blue states one-up each other in a mid-decade battle to redraw congressional lines. When red Texas and Missouri unveiled redistricting plans in recent months, blue states retaliated. Californians are voting on Proposition 50, a measure pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/new-york-post-gerrymandering-wont-work-it-may-tweak-congress-but-2030-census-dooms-blue-states-sway/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="byline meta meta--byline">By <a href="https://nypost.com/author/michael-solon/">Michael Solon</a></div>
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<div class="date--updated__item"><span class="updated-text">Published </span><span class="updated-date">Oct. 29, 2025, 11:20 a.m. ET</span></div>
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<p>Redistricting fervor is gripping our states’ capitals, as red states and blue states <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/07/27/opinion/gov-hochuls-latest-redistricting-threat-is-dangerous-and-undemocratic/">one-up each other</a> in a mid-decade battle to <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/08/05/opinion/dems-furious-at-texas-redistricting-need-to-look-in-the-mirror/">redraw congressional lines</a>.</p>
<p>When red Texas and Missouri unveiled redistricting plans in recent months, blue states retaliated.</p>
<p>Californians are <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/10/26/us-news/arnold-schwarzenegger-dismisses-newsom-argument-that-redistricting-effort-is-temporary-as-total-fantasy/">voting on Proposition 50</a>, a measure pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to end-run the state’s legally mandated nonpartisan mapping commission.</p>
<p>The redistricting plan threatened by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul faced steep constitutional challenges, so Democrats this week <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/10/27/us-news/lawsuit-argues-new-yorks-gop-held-11th-congressional-district-should-be-redrawn-dilutes-black-latino-voting/">filed a lawsuit</a> against the city’s single Republican, declaring the improperly drawn lines.</p>
<p>In the coming months, an expected Supreme Court <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/10/15/us-news/supreme-court-seems-set-to-restrict-race-based-redistricting-in-potential-election-game-changer/">ruling on the Voting Rights Act</a> could set off another scramble.</p>
<p>And while some or all of these changes may affect the 2026 midterm elections, they’ve got nothing on the massive political shift just around the corner: the 2030 US Census reapportionment.</p>
<p>As millions of Americans flee big blue-state governments, the next reapportionment will force an unprecedented transformation of both presidential campaigning and the makeup of the House of Representatives.</p>
<p>Major budget, economic, and social consequences will follow.</p>
<p>Population losses have cost Democrats electoral votes in their big states of New York and Illinois since World War II, but have been offset by California’s postwar population surge.</p>
<p>Once it turned blue in 1992, California’s electoral vote total peaked in 2000 and has declined since.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Texas has grown exponentially: It now has the nation’s second-largest Electoral College delegation, while Florida’s has skyrocketed to the third-largest today.</p>
<p>This substantial and ongoing migration means the 2030 reapportionment could shift six to 12 electoral votes from blue states to red ones, upending traditional strategies in presidential contests.</p>
<p>For Republicans, for example, it could <a href="https://nypost.com/2024/11/25/us-news/how-elites-got-the-election-wrong-and-ignored-those-predicting-donald-trumps-win/">end the importance of recent swing states</a> of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.</p>
<p>None of them will be needed for the GOP to secure an Electoral College win if just nine electoral votes shift to red states in 2030 and Republicans retain their traditional strongholds.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Democrats would need <em>all</em> these swing states, plus Iowa, to win the White House.</p>
<p>In the House, reapportionment could have a similar effect, but the shift is less certain.</p>
<p>Texas, for example, <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/08/20/us-news/texas-house-passes-redistricting-bill-stalled-by-awol-democrats/">redistricted this year </a>because its last attempt after the 2020 reapportionment backfired.</p>
<p>The Lone Star State gained two seats, but its legislature approved a redistricting plan that protected incumbent Republicans’ congressional seats rather than adding to the GOP’s total.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, states like Illinois gerrymandered so effectively after the 2020 reapportionment that in 2024, Republicans won only 18% of the Prairie State’s House seats, even though the GOP won an incredible 47% of its House votes.</p>
<p>When the 2030 reapportionment shifts the swing states in the presidential election, the nation’s swing voters will shift along with them.</p>
<p>After 2020’s reapportionment, the swing states remained the Rust Belt, and their swing votes were industrial workers.</p>
<p>That goes a long way toward explaining President Donald Trump’s focus on protecting and expanding manufacturing jobs.</p>
<p>When Rust Belt states are no longer the squeaky wheel, new swing states will grab the political spotlight — with Iowa at the top of the list.</p>
<p>Expect agriculture issues to dominate politically once again, and look for <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/01/18/new-hampshire-dems-say-bidens-primary-calendar-change-will-wreak-havoc/">Democrats to restore Iowa</a> as the first-in-the-nation caucus.</p>
<p>With successful redistricting, growing states with no or low income taxes should control the federal levers.</p>
<p>That means the special-interest provisions subsidizing blue states, <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/05/21/us-news/rep-mike-lawler-touts-40k-salt-deduction-cap-for-new-york-as-house-moves-to-pass-trumps-tax-package/">such as the SALT cap</a> allowing federal deductions of state and local taxes, could be eliminated.</p>
<p>Texas and Florida, which spend roughly $1,550 per Medicaid enrollee, won’t abide federal subsidies for New York’s $4,942 per enrollee.</p>
<p>Means-tested welfare spending, which has grown by 150% in real terms since 2000, will face tighter controls under the House’s new Republican domination.</p>
<p>The Republicans’ good fortunes in the House and White House would not extend to the Senate. Yet with reconciliation, Senate Republicans could cut taxes and spending.</p>
<p>With enhanced Republican influence on appropriations and on legislation regarding regulations, union rules and education bureaucracies, Democrats will soon become the Senate’s most fervent supporters of the legislative filibuster.</p>
<p>The Founding Fathers deserve credit for this looming transformation — along with Gresham’s law, the economic principle that “bad money drives out good.”</p>
<p>The Constitution’s 10th Amendment, declaring that all powers not specifically granted to the federal government are reserved for the states, made states the laboratories of American democracy.</p>
<p>Americans have been given a choice: between economic growth and opportunity in low-tax, low-spending states on the one hand, and expansive welfare benefits in high-tax, big-spending states on the other.</p>
<p>They have <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/05/01/us-news/14b-in-income-left-nyc-as-residents-fled-to-florida/">voted with their feet for opportunity</a>.</p>
<p>Bad policies drove out good voters.</p>
<p><em>Michael Solon is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute.</em></p>
<p>https://nypost.com/2025/10/29/opinion/gerrymandering-wont-work-2030-census-dooms-blue-states-sway/</p>
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		<title>WSJ-What’s at Stake in the Government Shutdown</title>
		<link>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-whats-at-stake-in-the-government-shutdown/</link>
		<comments>https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-whats-at-stake-in-the-government-shutdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2025 15:59:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[mariel]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[If Democrats get their way, pandemic spending will become permanent and bankruptcy will get closer. By Michael Solon Oct. 5, 2025 4:17 pm ET For Democrats in Washington, the pencils all lack erasers and none of the calculators have a minus button. It’s always addition, never subtraction. The Biden-Schumer-Pelosi spending surge generated the highest inflation in&#160;<a href="https://www.uspolicystrategies.com/wsj-whats-at-stake-in-the-government-shutdown/" class="read-more">Continue Reading</a>]]></description>
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<h2 class="css-3gg6jm-NormalDek-NormalDek-Styled-Styled-Styled emwm06f0">If Democrats get their way, pandemic spending will become permanent and bankruptcy will get closer.</h2>
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<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">By</p>
<p class="epvx9352 css-1s90smj-AuthorPlaintext">Michael Solon</p>
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<p class="es486sg1 css-1klckc5-TimeTag" data-testid="timestamp-text"><time datetime="2025-10-05T20:17:00.000Z">Oct. 5, 2025 4:17 pm</time> ET</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">For Democrats in Washington, the pencils all lack erasers and none of the calculators have a minus button. It’s always addition, never subtraction. The Biden-Schumer-Pelosi spending surge generated the highest inflation in 40 years, the highest interest rates since the subprime crisis, and the loss of the White House, Senate and House. Democrats still insist on no reductions in the post-pandemic spending that fueled their defeat.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Demands to increase healthcare spending are a charade to mask the Democrats’ fury over Republican tax reductions and spending cuts. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended the 2017 tax cut, at a projected cost of $4.5 trillion, and cut spending by $1 trillion, Democratic activists insisted on a futile gesture. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has obliged, shutting down the government and calling the new law the “Mount Rushmore of fiscally irresponsible bills.”</p>
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<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Have Republicans been excessive in their tax and spending cuts? Hardly. Democrats may point to the Congressional Budget Office’s original budget projections but only by including the CBO’s revisions do the facts become obvious. Spending, not tax cuts, remains the driver of federal debt.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Our fiscal story should begin at the beginning, when President Trump took office in January 2017 with the CBO’s <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/recurringdata/51118-2017-01-budgetprojections.xlsx" target="_blank" data-type="link">budget estimates</a> released that month. The CBO projected federal revenue of $43 trillion for 2018-27. In later projections, the CBO estimated the 2017 tax cut of nearly $1.7 trillion—along with other legislation in the pandemic and under President Biden cutting revenue by $787 billion—would legislatively reduce revenue by $2.5 trillion during 2018-27. Based on simple math, federal revenue should drop to $40.5 trillion for this period. Instead CBO says total federal revenue for that period is $45.2 trillion, based on its <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51134-2025-01-Historical-Budget-Data.xlsx" target="_blank" data-type="link">actual</a> and <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51118-2025-01-Budget-Projections.xlsx" target="_blank" data-type="link">revised</a> projections. That is $4.7 trillion more than the pre-2017 tax cut baseline if you include the revenue lost to the tax cuts. Has anyone heard that taxpayers paid more than their share?</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">What happened to spending since January 2017? CBO projected spending to total $52.5 trillion during 2018-27. Then the pandemic hit, and Mr. Trump and Republicans spent an extra $1.9 trillion in fiscal 2020 as well as $900 billion after the 2020 election. Did CBO revise its spending baseline upward by $2.8 trillion? No, CBO’s <a class="ekxajjj0 css-i0lbhy-OverridedLink" href="https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51134-2025-01-Historical-Budget-Data.xlsx" target="_blank" data-type="link">actual</a> and revised projections say spending rose by almost four times the 2020 pandemic’s cost—$10.5 trillion, to $63 trillion for 2018-27. Has anyone in the federal government declared a mea culpa here?</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">In all, Messrs. Biden and Schumer’s legislation spent more in the fiscal year after the pandemic than Mr. Trump did during the pandemic. That added $6.8 trillion of extra spending over Mr. Biden’s four years and contributed to the national debt’s expanding by $7.5 trillion entirely from overspending.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Viewed from this perspective, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax cut of $4.5 trillion over 2025-34 doesn’t offset the higher actual and projected extra revenue of $4.7 trillion for 2018-27. The $1 trillion in net spending cuts is one-tenth the actual and projected overspending since 2017.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Now Mr. Schumer wants to add back $1.5 trillion of new spending, reversing 150% of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s small spending cuts relative to the total overspending since 2017. That would reward both Medicaid and ObamaCare, two of the most profligate spending programs.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">Back in 2017, the CBO projected Medicaid spending for 2027 of $650 billion, the last year projected. Now it is $88 billion higher, at $738 billion. While the Republicans’ new law would reduce that to $688 billion, Mr. Schumer could conceivably add back 150% of the reductions to raise Medicaid spending in 2027 to $763 billion, working out to 96% growth since 2017.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The same applies to ObamaCare, which was projected in 2017 to cost $106 billion in 2027. Now it is at $119 billion, and Mr. Schumer’s reversal could take ObamaCare above the CBO’s most recent estimate to $127 billion, or 148% above its 2017 level of $51 billion. When federal spending more than doubles every 10 years, inflation should be expected, not surprising.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">What Mr. Schumer is restoring isn’t healthcare benefits but fraud and abuse. His repeal of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s healthcare provisions would reinstate Medicaid emergency-room coverage for illegal aliens, block Medicaid work requirements on the able-bodied, restore states’ “provider tax” shell games, and end the twice-annual income verification to continue Medicaid coverage. The big expansion of health benefits to a family of four with incomes over $124,800 wasn’t in ObamaCare but a post-pandemic “Bidencare” add-on.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">The bottom line is that the national debt, projected to increase by $9.4 trillion in 2018-27, has now surged to $21.7 trillion of new debt projected for 2026-35. The Republican Congress slowed but never reversed the post-pandemic spending surge and must resist Democrats’ latest demand for new deficit spending. Failing that, they must insist on full offsets such as the Clinton welfare standard of 35 hours a week to replace the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 20 hours on both Medicaid and food stamps, while also applying the work requirement to housing subsidies.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph">To slow America’s pace on the road to bankruptcy, Republicans must stop Mr. Schumer’s plan. Acquiescing to his shutdown demands would mean not one dime of the post-pandemic’s massive spending surge that generated high inflation and keeps interest rates high is ever recalled.</p>
<p class="css-1akm6h5-Paragraph e1e4oisd0" data-type="paragraph"><em class="css-i6hrxa-Italic e1ofiv6m0" data-type="emphasis">Mr. Solon is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.</em></p>
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